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  • Job Outlook: Hiring for U.S. Jobs Expected to Be Flat

    November 16, 2016 | By NACE Staff

    Trends & Predictions
    Data on a spreadsheet.

    TAGS: hiring outlook, spotlight

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    Hiring for U.S. openings for Class of 2017 graduates is expected to be relatively flat, according to results of NACE’s Job Outlook 2017 survey.

    Employers indicated plans to hire 5.8 percent more new graduates during 2016-17 than they did in 2015-16 for their U.S. operations.

    This current projection is in line with final projections employers reported for last year’s graduates in the Job Outlook 2016 Spring Update survey. While employers initially anticipated hiring 11 percent more Class of 2016 college graduates, they ended the cycle instead with a 5.2 percent increase. (See Figure 1.)

    Exploring the individual hiring plans of respondents provides insight into the flat hiring market for new college graduates. Overall, fewer respondents to the 2017 survey anticipate hiring more new college graduates than was the case a year ago: 36 percent versus 40 percent. (See Figure 2.)

    This marks the fourth consecutive year of that trend. On a positive note, the difference is made up by the majority of employers who anticipate keeping their hiring levels even with last year’s levels. Fewer expect to cut hiring.

    Most of the respondents that are increasing their hiring numbers are doing so because of company growth, as there is an increased demand for their products and services. Employers also cited the importance of building talent pipelines with new college graduates as a catalyst for increasing college hiring. Some respondents noted that they are molding these new hires to become the future leaders of their organizations.

    The largest group of respondents that are maintaining their hiring levels also pointed to company growth, which is encouraging. Most of these organizations indicated that they are experiencing a stable work force and consistent work load, hence the reason for neither increasing nor decreasing their hires. A small group of respondents that will maintain their numbers did mention budget constraints, but expect to keep hiring new graduates at the same level.

    Some of those reporting plans to decrease their hiring numbers cited hiring freezes and business conditions, but others indicated that they hired large numbers of graduates in the past few years, and simply don’t need to hire as many in 2016-17. Of interest: Last year, nearly 42 percent of those cutting back cited the downturn in the oil and gas industry as a contributing factor, but just a handful of current respondents made note of that.

    Data for the Job Outlook 2017 survey were collected from August 5, 2016, through October 4, 2016. A total of 169 surveys were returned—a 17 percent response rate. The Job Outlook 2017 report is available at www.naceweb.org/surveys/job-outlook.aspx or through the MyNACE area at www.naceweb.org/job-outlook/index.aspx.

    Figure 1: Job Outlook hiring projections, 2011 – 2017*

    Class Year Fall Projections Spring Projections
    2017 5.8% NA
    2016 11.0% 5.2%
    2015 8.3% 9.6%
    2014 7.8% 8.6%
    2013 13.0% 2.1%
    2012 9.5% 10.2%
    2011 13.5% 19.3%
    Source: Job Outlook 2017, National Association of Colleges and Employers

    * Years 2014 through 2017 are the hiring projections for U.S. locations only. Prior years’ projections are shown for informational purposes only, and should not be compared to the 2014-17 projections.

    Figure 2: Employers’ hiring expectations

    Recruiting Year Increase Maintain Decrease
    2010-11 47.7% 40.1% 12.2%
    2011-12 50.8% 37.4% 11.8%
    2012-13 47.5% 42.4% 10.1%
    2013-14 48.6% 45.3% 6.1%
    2014-15 46.4% 45.9% 7.7%
    2015-16 40.1% 46.7% 13.2%
    2016-17 36.3% 52.1% 11.6%
    Source: Job Outlook 2017, National Association of Colleges and Employers